A review and test of predictive models for the bioaccumulation of radiostrontium in fish

Empirical relations between the ⁹⁰Sr concentration factor (CF) and the calcium concentration in freshwater aquatic systems have previously been determined in studies based on data obtained prior to the Chernobyl accident. The purpose of the present research is to review and compare these models, and to test them against a database of post-Chernobyl measurements from rivers and lakes in Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and Finland. It was found that two independently developed models, based on pre-Chernobyl empirical data, are in close agreement with each other, and with empirical data. Testing of both models against new data obtained after the Chernobyl accident confirms the models’ predictive ability. An investigation of the influence of fish size on ⁹⁰Sr accumulation showed no significant relationship, though the data set was somewhat limited.     

A new method to account for the depth distribution of 137Cs in soils in the calculation of external radiation dose-rate

This work reports a new method for calculating the external dose-rate as a function of height above land that has been contaminated with a surface deposition of (137)Cs. Unlike previous work this method accounts for vertical migration of (137)Cs using the Advection Dispersion Equation (ADE) with appropriate parameters. The results have been successfully verified with field measurements from the (137)Cs contaminated regions within the Republic of Belarus. The method also correctly predicts the observed variation of dose-rate with elevation above the soil surface and it is shown how this method can be used to predict the reduction in surface dose-rate after remediation measures such as deep ploughing have taken place.     

Uptake and elimination of radiocaesium in fish and the "size effect."

A number of hypotheses have previously been developed concerning the rates of uptake and elimination of radiocaesium (137Cs) in fish. These include the influence of potassium and other water chemical parameters on both uptake and elimination, and the effect of fish size on accumulation. In order to test these hypotheses, we have assembled a data set comprising more than 1,000 measurements of radiocaesium (137Cs) in predatory fish (perch, pike and brown trout) in nine European lakes during the years after Chernobyl. These data have been analysed using simple models for uptake and excretion of 137Cs in fish, showing that: 1. Fish-water concentration factors (CF) were inversely proportional to potassium [K+] concentration of the different lakes, in agreement with previous studies. 2. The uptake rate of 137Cs in fish was negatively correlated with lake [K+], but excretion rate was independent of [K+]. 3. Lower than expected CF values were found in one lake, Iso Valkj?rvi, Finland. This is attributed to inhibition of the K+ (and therefore 137Cs) high affinity transport system in aquatic plants and fish by low pH and/or low Ca2+. 4. The inclusion of fish weight as a parameter in our dynamic model significantly improves the ability of the model to fit the observed measurements of 137Cs. 5. The model developed from the above hypotheses was able to fit the data from nine different lakes to within approximately a factor of 3 of the observed values.     

"Blind" testing of models for predicting the 90Sr activity concentration in river systems using post-Chernobyl monitoring data

Two different models for predicting the time-dependent mobility of (90)Sr in river systems have been evaluated using post-Chernobyl monitoring data for five large Belarusian rivers (Dnieper, Pripyat, Sozh, Besed and Iput) in the period between 1990 and 2004. The results of model predictions are shown to be in good agreement (within a factor of 5) with the measurements of (90)Sr activity concentration in river waters over a long period of time after the accident. This verifies the relatively good accuracy of the generalised input parameters of these models which were derived primarily from measurements of (90)Sr deposited after atmospheric nuclear weapons testing (NWT). For the cases studied here, the simpler AQUASCOPE model performed just as well as the more complex "Global" model which used GIS-based catchment data as an input. The reasons for this are discussed. Exponential decay equations were also curve-fitted to the data for each river to help assess the uncertainties in the predictive models.